Tropical Weather Watchers II
September 08, 2010, 10:31:44 PM *
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 1 
 on: Today at 03:06:00 PM 
Started by kenl01 - Last post by kenl01
Scotland - First snowfall of winter … in August 2 Sep 10 - “There were snow showers across the Cairngorms," said Geoff Monk of Mountain Weather Info Service. "They lasted a couple of hours, it was almost ongoing. On some places the snow remained on the ground."
“It is something that happens about once every two decades," said Monk. "There can be snow in the Cairngorms any time of year, even July can have a snow shower. But it is very unusual."
Heavy falls of snow and prolonged spells of freezing temperatures were a feature of the winter just past as sub-zero temperatures and snow blew into the UK from mid-December.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-first-snow-of-winter-falls-in-august-1.1052323


 2 
 on: Today at 08:18:48 AM 
Started by Matthew - Last post by rainstorm
another  fisicane?

 3 
 on: Today at 08:17:17 AM 
Started by Matthew - Last post by Matthew
Tropical storm Igor
forecast 1#
11am est
9-9-2010

Igor forms south of the cape verdes. The last 24 hours a strong area of low pressure moved off the cape verdes and has become better organized, with ascat now showing a well defined LLC with 30-35 knot winds. Convection has become much better organized, so intensity is being set at 35 knots. We expect this system to move westward on the bottom of the deep layer subtropical ridging and strengthen.

Track wise: All dynamic and global models forecast a westward motion under a deep layered subtropical ridge over the next 36-48 hours...Afterwards a weakness between 45-65 west caused by the negative nao should cause the system to move within a more southeast to northwestward flow, which should turn the cyclone west-northwestward...Two camps then after between the hours of 96 and further, 1# Ecmwf and 2# 00z gfs, cmc which are far more northward with a far more weakness at 60. The 00z gfs thinking sure would make sense being that this weakness has been around there this season, but the 06z gfs has become more in agreement with the ecmwf 00z, so we feel that more ridging to the north should be the likely path to go for the 96-120 hour time frame. We will only forecast west-northwest during the 96-120 hour time period taking it to 17/44.5 by 120 hours.

Strength wise: cyclone being impacted by 20 knots of easterly shear, so strengthening should be limited for the next 24 hours until west of 30. But then after we're forecasting fairly rebust strengthening as the cyclone should be under favorable upper levels and the models support rebust strengthening. After 24 hours the cyclone develops a anticyclone, which will support solid strenthening. We take it to hurricane strength by 3 days and 85 knots by 120 hours.

Strength forecast
0 35 knots
6 35 knots
12 35 knots
24 40 knots
36 50 knots
48 60 knots
72 65 knots
96 75 knots
120 85 knots

 4 
 on: Today at 02:58:04 AM 
Started by kenl01 - Last post by Matthew
it was  cool here this  morning.

Here to...Raining a lot. Tongue

 5 
 on: Today at 02:55:43 AM 
Started by Matthew - Last post by Matthew
If it where to have made slightly less of a westward turn for that 6 hour period leading up to landfall. Then chances are very good that it would of hit Texas directly as a hurricane. It tracked northward only a few hours after landfall and was no more then 50 miles from the coastline at 28 north.

Radar shown volicies of 78-83 knots at 4,300 feet as it made landfall. 5,000=850 millibars or .8 reduction, so around .78 reduction? So 61-64 knots. Wouldn't of taken a hell of a lot longer if that high was slightly weaker or placed further east.

91L has become much better organized this morning and has developed a low level circulation on 85h, ascat and IR....Organized convection has formed over it and it is now well on its way to being a tropical depression. Should head westward for the next 48-72 hours, but will hit a weakness around 45-50 west within 5-6 days. We will see how things go then.

 6 
 on: Yesterday at 06:50:46 PM 
Started by kenl01 - Last post by rainstorm
will do!!

 7 
 on: Yesterday at 06:49:05 PM 
Started by kenl01 - Last post by rainstorm
it was  cool here this  morning.

 8 
 on: Yesterday at 01:50:19 PM 
Started by Matthew - Last post by kenl01
hermy should  go inland  well south. they always do down there

stick a fork in it  Grin

 9 
 on: Yesterday at 12:55:28 PM 
Started by kenl01 - Last post by kenl01
Low temperatures tie records at LAX, Oceanside 1 Sept 10 -
The temperature dipped to 58 degrees at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), tying a record set in 1951, and  dropped to 66 in Oceanside, tying the record set in 1914.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/09/record-low-temperatures-lax-ocenside.html

 10 
 on: Yesterday at 09:04:52 AM 
Started by kenl01 - Last post by kenl01
Early snowfall in China 6 Sep 10 -
Though winter is several months away, up to 10 cm of snow has already fallen across northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
Snow blanketed parts of the 303 Regional Highway in the city of Hami, stranding many vehicles. The region's agricultural industry has also been affected, with 46-thousand hectares of wheat crops damaged by the snow.
The weather bureau says a cold front is forecast to sweep across northern China, causing temperatures to drop by up to 8 degrees Celsius. Temperatures, in areas like Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang could drop by up to 10 degrees.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/video/2010-09/06/c_13480663.htm


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