TROPICAL storm 1 forms

[rainstorm]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM Edt THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM Edt...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM Edt INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM Edt.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

[Matthew]

I also believe that this was a tropical storm for a short time.

[rainstorm]

i think so as well

[Matthew]

 

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE
T2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY.  AN AMSU PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE
THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING
OFF THE NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS.  AS LONG AS IT REMAINS THERE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST
INPUT TO THE MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 37.3N  71.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 38.5N  68.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 40.2N  64.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 41.5N  60.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 43.0N  55.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 46.0N  46.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
 
NNNN

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
30 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HR IN A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR
DURING THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  AFTER THAT...COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HR.  IT IS POSSBLE THAT BOTH
OF THESE EVENTS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN
CANADA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 37.7N  69.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 38.7N  67.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 40.4N  62.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 42.2N  57.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 43.9N  52.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN

[Matthew]

Tropical Depression ONE
 
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
 
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION WAS BECOMING SOMEWHAT EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS SHRUNK A BIT IN SIZE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 1.5
FROM SAB AND REMAIN 2.0 FROM TAFB.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2330 UTC
SHOWED A FEW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE VECTORS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY RAIN.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
HELD AT 30 KT.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
HUGGING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE CENTER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WALL OVER COLDER WATERS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON. THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
TANGLED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
AT THAT POINT. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS
OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR NEW
ENGLAND.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/13 AS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 38.1N  67.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 39.1N  65.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 41.2N  60.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 43.4N  55.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN
 
 

[Matthew]

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
500 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
 
AFTER AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 0400
UTC...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE AND MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.  THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AT 0102 UTC THAT SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT.
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER
COLDER WATER TODAY.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HAS PASSED.  MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH.  THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY 36
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES
POORLY DEFINED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING AROUND 070/13.  THE CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN...
ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 38.9N  66.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 40.2N  63.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 42.5N  59.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
 
NNNN



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

 

[Matthew]

I Believe this was close to tropical storm strength for about six hours.

[Matthew]

[rainstorm]

i think it was a storm

[Matthew]

[Matthew]

Theres NO QUESTION. I'm going to change the title to tropical storm. TOO HELL WITH THE freaking NHC!

[rainstorm]

i agree  with you