TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR)

[Matthew]

WTPN34 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 153.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 153.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.6N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.0N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.4N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.0N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.4N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.3N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 153.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES TS 20W IS JUST WEST OF A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND
POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TS MELOR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Matthew]

This is a picture of a 140-145 knot beast.

[Matthew]

WTPN34 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 020   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 142.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 142.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 17.6N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 18.7N 136.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 23.3N 132.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 30.4N 135.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 36.4N 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 38 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 45.0N 160.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 141.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A 30 NM WIDE,
CLOUD-FREE, VERY WELL-DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW TO ALL
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
AROUND 14 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z,
041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[rainstorm]

incredible

[rainstorm]

[rainstorm]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/tc_pages/thumbnails/thumbs/tc09/WPAC/20W.MELOR/

[rainstorm]

msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 20w (Melor) warning nr 22//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Recent animated infrared imagery and a 040759z ssmis microwave
image show an impressive super typhoon with a well-defined, 22 nm
eye outlined by intense convection firing within the eye wall.
Outflow into upper level troughing over the Marshall Islands has
facilitated super typhoon classification, in addition to increased
ocean heat content and pronounced radial outflow. The latest Dvorak
fixes from pgtw and rjtd estimate a 140 knot system. The system also
continues to slowly gain latitude while tracking along the southern
periphery of the mid to upper level ridge to the north. A very
strong baroclinic boundary and jet Max is currently over Japan. It
is this boundary (and associated upper level trough) that is
forecast to erode the ridge to the north of sty 20w, allowing for
recurvature.
3. Forecast reasoning
   a. The forecast reasoning has not significantly changed since the
previous prognostic reasoning bulletin.
   B. The system will continue to track increasingly poleward prior
to recurvature near 48 hours. As the system rounds the subtropical
steering ridge, tracking deeper into the mid-latitude westerlies, it
will quickly gain baroclinicity. A very strong baroclinic boundary
near 32n will initiate this transformation. Accordingly, the
forecast calls for extratropical transition to begin at tau 72 and
end by tau 96. The system is expected to gradually weaken as a
tropical system (prior to recurvature) due to decreased ocean heat
content and increased vertical wind shear. The official forecast
continues to lie just offshore of the eastern coast of Japan, in
accordance with EGRR and GFS, and consistent with strong upper level
westerlies, extending as far south as south-central Japan. JGSM and
WBAR also no longer continue to be western outliers, and have come
in line with the jtwc forecast and the other available consensus
members.
   C. At tau 96 the system will be located near 40n as a fully
extratropical system.

[Matthew]

WTPN34 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 023   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 137.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 137.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 19.5N 134.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 21.5N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 23.7N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 26.7N 131.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 32.8N 137.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 39.5N 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 46.4N 160.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 136.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 041347Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SUPER TYPHOON WITH A WELL-
DEFINED, 24 NM EYE OUTLINED BY A SOLID RING OF INTENSE CONVECTION
FIRING WITHIN THE EYE WALL. STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ESPECIALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS SHOW A SLIGHT
ASYMMETRY TO THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED SSMI/ AMSRE
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMMS. STY 20W
CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE LATEST DVORAK
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE LAST 12
HOURS AT 7.0 (140 KNOTS). AS STY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND JET MAX CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN WILL
ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF STY 20W AND ALLOW FOR RECURVATURE.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GRADUALLY POLEWARD PRIOR TO RECURVATURE NEAR
36 HOURS. AFTER STY 20W ROUNDS THE STR AROUND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS STY20W
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO DECREASED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL JAPAN. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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