Tropical updates

[Matthew]

Tropical update
7-26-2010
7pm est

The only area for the short term to even watch is a ull with a tropical wave within the eastern gulf of Mexico near 23/87 moving westward. Yes ull's can transform and in fact they have done so before within the gulf, but I believe that you need a cold upper levels to build a warm core near the surface. Now I don't believe it is impossible, but just harder to do. This won't likely become anything, but of course I would watch to the south with the energy over the yucatan much alike 98l, 36 hours before it became interesting...I give this 5%...Of course the gfs has lower pressures within the boc once again. Always something to watch, but lets just say I'm not excited as of yet.

The caribbean and the rest of the Atlantic is deader then hell. Lets just say that devoid of convection area of low pressure is within the eastern Atlantic, who knows, these things are normally something to watch. The itcz to 10 east is crappy today and nothing looks good that could come off africa within the next 3-5 days.

But the cmc hints at a depression or weak tropical storm near 30-40 west around 108-120 hour time frame. If I was betting on the norm,,,I would say since that would be within the cape verde season that I would think it is most likely possible, but still out there. With only the cmc, which is a hurricane weenie model. It agree's with the ecmwf with both showing a east coast trough forming over the east coast and western Atlantic...This my friends would be bad news.

Nothing forming within the Eastern Pacific. What a shut down!

A sheared tropical storm appears to be moving north-northwestward north of Tawain. I would say about 35-45 knots. We will see of course.

[rainstorm]

will anything  happen soon?

[kenl01]

I even remember far more activity in the 1990 Season (I have the old Richard Horodner VHS tape here) in the Pacific than this year.   By now we had a developing El-Nino at that time, which normally indicates lots of activity in the Pacific.  We already had one borderline cat 5 (Hernan) late July and one cat 3 (Iselle) by now end of July, with 7 hurricanes by July 30th.   Not even close to that this year - only 2 so far.   Back in those days I used to buy into the media BS that hurricanes would double in strength by 2020 !   I used to believe everything they said back then LOL 

History of Hernan - 135k
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/hernan/prenhc/prelim01.gif

History of Iselle - 105k
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/iselle/prenhc/prelim01.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/iselle/prenhc/prelim03.gif

History of Genevieve 90K
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/geneviev/prenhc/prelim01.gif

History of Fausto  75K
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/fausto/prenhc/prelim01.gif

History of Elida 70K
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/elida/prenhc/prelim01.gif

History of Boris 80K
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/boris/prenhc/prelim01.gif

History of Alma  - 75K
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/epacific/ep1990/alma/prenhc/prelim03.gif

[Matthew]

Tropical update
10pm est
7-28-2010


The only thing to watch tonight is a wave south-southwest of the cape verdes near 11/24 moving westward within the itcz...This wave is being effected by easterly shear of 15-20 knots and most of the convection is 4-5 degree's east of the axis of the wave. So short term development doesn't seem to likely. Another wave at 11/14 is coming off shore, but developmental possiblities are pretty low as of this time.

Strong upper level shear is through most of the caribbean and western Atlantic,,,No development throughout the next 48-72 hours within these area's. Even so there is two weak waves 1# at 64 and another at 48...No development should be expected because of strong southwesterly shear.

The ecmwf that was showing some development in the longer range, no longer shows it, but the cmc, nogaps still hint at it. This is possibly either our wave at 24 or maybe the one behind it. We will see. We will see as we will be within August and the chances for development start to increase.

[rainstorm]

very  dead

[kenl01]

Here is the guy I bought the hurricane tape from in 1990.  Storm chaser Richard Horodner:

http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm

[rainstorm]

thats great.

[Matthew]

Tropical update
7-29-2010
7pm est

...90L forms out of waves at 9 north/30 west, which has shown some organizion today as the convection has become much better organized within the area of the wave. Quickscat also shows a clearly defined wave within the area, which only really needs a west wind and some convective organization to be a depression in reality...So this must be watched and as it moves west to around 35 west the easterly shear will drop to around 10 knots or less, but on the other hand low level steering should be less then avg with the ecmwf taking it north of west to near 11/34 from 9/29.5 now at 72 hours. After 72 hours to 120 hours the ecmwf rebuilds a deep 500-850 millibar azores to the north of the invest, which pushs it due west to 11/48 west. The ecmwf has trended towards a stronger ridge to the north of the system over the last few runs...So it is favorable for a more westerly track. The hurricane bamm, bams, bamd all show a west-northwest turning more northwestward later in the period. With the ship taking it to hurricane strength; which is caused by a weaker azores high...Most importantly is the 12z gfs don't even develop it up to 12z ecmwf levels, which is something you don't see very often. After 72 hours it also restrengthens a solid azores to the north. Then turning it northwestward into the ridge. We don't see any system to weaken the ridge and the closes one is over the east coast about 1,200-1,500 miles west. So we're throwing out the bamm, bams, bamd, cmc thinking and going with the stronger ridge thinking of the gfs, ecmwf.

The shear models show a weak upper level ridge forming within 30-35 at 12-15 at 24-48 hour time frame, which should give this thing shear of 8-12 knots. This becomes more organized over it at 48-72 hours, but a ull drops to the northwest of the system from 72-120 hours...Which could increase upper level wind shear over the system. So this should only have a window of 72 hours before the environment becomes far less favorable. The cmc is very rebus with this system moving it to 38 at 84 hours as a fairly healthy system...

But anyways today I believe this has a good shot at becoming something...So how about 40 percent for the next 72 hours.


Area's that might be favorable enough for development is the east-central Gulf with northerly shear as low as 5-8 knots and the southern Caribbean from 55-75 west south of 13. The mdr is a mix of 5-20 knots of shear. Anyways we got a few ok area's...

[rainstorm]

we  must  keep watching

[Matthew]

yes

[Matthew]

Tropical update
7-30-2010

We have tree areas to watch, 1# 90L and 2# a caribbean system...Frontal low near 30/74...

90L appears to be centered near 8.9/32; Yes the convection has become less organized throughout today, but the low levels look to be somewhat better with a fairly large area of turning at the mid levels. A weak ull sits at 18/38, but it appears not to be having much effect on the cyclone currently with only 10-14 knots of easterly shear shown by cimss shear maps. In fact the area north of 10 along the mdr is more favorable around 5-8 knots of shear, which very well could be because the deep layer easterly shear lays south of 10. This is likely causing some developmental problems for our system...But as it moves more westward and north of 10 that should become more favorable within the next 24-72 hours. The upper level divergence and low level convergence also seems to be pretty favorable for development of a tropical cyclone.

Ascat shown westerly winds to the south of the system from 34-36 west...It didn't catch the whole system, but this is a sign of surface organization. On the other hand this is the itcz and you should expect wind flows to go in these direction, but the angle favors a increase in surface development to say the least. Backing this first image up is image 2# or decending past which shows a northerly,,,so all we need is a southerly around the west side to have a LLC. When you put both together it is clearly becoming more organized. But development should be very slow and we may not get a depression for another 48 hours...

The invest sits under a strong easterly steering current under the azores high, which should force the system westward throughout the next 24-36 hours. The bamm, bams, bamd have all shifted to the left from yesterday, with showing a northern windward landfall tonight. 00z cmc shows very far north,,,We don't see how this can occur, so it is being thrown out. With the hwrf, which shown alex a month ago hitting the eastern gulf of mexico also north. Both will not be used. In fact the bamm, bamd, bams where made for westward moving mdr systems, so it is safer to use them now, but a word of warning, they don't handle large scale patterns very good...In which we will use the globals like the gfs, ecmwf to fine tune that. Ngpi also shows a fairly westward track,,,


The ecmwf shows a west-northwest to northwest track through the next 72 hours to around 11/35.5. We believe that it is more likely to be a reformation to the north as the steering flow is quite strong as of this time to the west. Also once this system gettings better set it pretty much moves westward for the next 96-120 hours to 12/50 around 120 hours. After 144 hours it gets tricky as there will be a weakness off the east coast..The gfs last night was showing a very possible east coast threat. The ecmwf shows from hour 144-208 that there maybe enough troughing to break the ridge, but we think that there maybe enough surface ridging to push it westward. This is supported by the 12z gfs which has it at 65 west by 150 hours. So a more west to west-northwest track through 144 hours is very likely.

Strengthwise, Lgem is right in the middle with 40 knots at 72 hours and dship is a good part faster on strengthening with 60-65 knots at 72 hours. Ngpi and Shf5 don't show much strengthening,,,We will go closer to the lgem as it has shown to be a better model. The environment won't be favorable enough for much more as the easterly's will make sure of it...The shear models that shown a ull develop yesterday no longer do, but we need to watch carefully just in case.

Overall 50% chance this becomes a depression during the next 72 hours...

2# Area two should have to deal with some pretty intense shear as another ull pushs southward into the central Caribbean throughout the next 24-48 hours. Some models like the cmc and some runs of the ecmwf tries to develop it and push it westward. This system is currently centered near 12/65, but any development should be very slow throughout the next 72 hours. We put it at 20%..

A frontal low is showing some signs of development near 30/74...If convection keeps increasing and constant this could develop into a quick cyclone. The environment is not really favorable, but as the system moves east-northeastward and rides with it; it could become slightly more favorable for cyclone development. 30%

[Matthew]

This maybe asking for a bashing, but this is inside thinking from me. Shouldn't be posted because it is based on thinking of many factors that would need to falls into place. But anything can happen, but I'm for the time being going closer to the southern route as you can see.

[rainstorm]

wow

[Matthew]

 

[Matthew]

13/6/3
102 ace

90L is not impossible to develop, but should be very very slow indeed. Another wave of energy about 10 degree's east looks better organized and has a better chance for the fact that it is outside of the itcz...But any development should be very slow to occur.