Hurricane Ernesto-Heading for the GULF!

[Matthew]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 010918
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...CORRECTED DESCRIPTION OF WHEN SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...

WSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY
INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
010/13.  THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT
VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR
LESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
TOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BOTH
THE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 35.1N  77.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 36.7N  77.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 38.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 40.5N  78.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 42.7N  79.2W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[winter123]

How much of this do you think Buffalo NY will get? The center is predicted to head this way, but it just doesn't look like that to me! It will be an interesting saturday...

[Matthew]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 011428
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT
12 KNOTS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON ERNESTO.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 36.4N  77.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 41.5N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Likely to at least get a shower!

[winter123]

Haha, thanks! :cheers:

But wow, Ernesto got ripped apart!

[winter123]

It looks like a low is trying to reform over the great lakes. I know it's extremely unlikely, but I think it would be cool if we got another Hurricane Huron! :cheers:

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT
LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN
THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE
FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT
10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF  ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64
KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.  THE
INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA
P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT. 

ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.       

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 31.3N  79.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 33.4N  78.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  78.0W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 40.1N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[rainstorm]

is  it  hitting  land  now?